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HOMEPAGE OBSERVING by Alan MacRobert
The March 19th "Supermoon": Hardly Super
There's no telling what the world will get excited about. Amid the catastrophe in Japan, the Libyan and Yemeni crises and everything else, a lot of the news media and the internet, it seems, are eagerly awaiting Saturday's "supermoon." It's being billed as the closest and biggest full Moon in 18 years.
It's true. The Moon is full on March 19th right about when it's at perigee, its closest to Earth in its monthly orbit. And not all perigees are precisely the same. This one is a trace closer than usual.
But not by enough to notice.
There's something that many people (and too much of the news media) never seem to grasp: When it comes to science stories, if you don't know it in numbers, you don't know it at all.
How much bigger is this month's full Moon? Here's the number. It's just 2% bigger in diameter than the full Moons of last month and next month. That's one part in fifty. You couldn't tell the difference if you put them side by side.
Big whoop.
There is, however, more to the picture. The difference between the Moon at perigee and apogee, its farthest from Earth each month (just two weeks before and after every perigee), is roughly 14%, quite noticeable in a side-by-side comparison as shown below. But when the Moon is up in the sky and there's no comparison at hand, even that much difference is hard to detect.
The takeaway message from all this? Astronomy stories inspire people to look up and consider the larger universe, but they can also educate in practical ways for getting through life. The "supermoon" flap is a harmless bit of hype. But when your relatives start sending you frantic chain letters about the Japanese nuclear fallout starting to "pound the West Coast," like one blog post I've already seen going around, remember what you read here:
When it comes to science stories, if you don't know it in numbers, you don't know it at all.
Look at the numbers for the radiation reaching the West Coast. You'll see that it's trivial compared to the natural background radiation that everyone receives every day.
So don't let anyone tell you that you can't learn anything practical from astronomy. Send your frantic aunt this article.
Gary Seronik
But not by enough to notice.
There's something that many people (and too much of the news media) never seem to grasp: When it comes to science stories, if you don't know it in numbers, you don't know it at all.
How much bigger is this month's full Moon? Here's the number. It's just 2% bigger in diameter than the full Moons of last month and next month. That's one part in fifty. You couldn't tell the difference if you put them side by side.
Big whoop.
There is, however, more to the picture. The difference between the Moon at perigee and apogee, its farthest from Earth each month (just two weeks before and after every perigee), is roughly 14%, quite noticeable in a side-by-side comparison as shown below. But when the Moon is up in the sky and there's no comparison at hand, even that much difference is hard to detect.
The takeaway message from all this? Astronomy stories inspire people to look up and consider the larger universe, but they can also educate in practical ways for getting through life. The "supermoon" flap is a harmless bit of hype. But when your relatives start sending you frantic chain letters about the Japanese nuclear fallout starting to "pound the West Coast," like one blog post I've already seen going around, remember what you read here:
When it comes to science stories, if you don't know it in numbers, you don't know it at all.
Look at the numbers for the radiation reaching the West Coast. You'll see that it's trivial compared to the natural background radiation that everyone receives every day.
So don't let anyone tell you that you can't learn anything practical from astronomy. Send your frantic aunt this article.
Posted by Alan MacRobert, March 18, 2011
The following comments do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Sky Publishing.
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By posting a comment, you agree to our Rules of Conduct and Terms of Use.
First comments (from 17)
its all in the numbers
Posted by flow
March 18, 2011 At 04:14 PM PDT
its seems there are two poles to this debate, the over-reacting disaster crew, and the over-compensating denial crew.
2% is a lot. if your mortgage interest went up by that much, you'd be howling, and if you got that much fatter, you'd cry.
lets be honest here. 'tidal forces', or distortions in the gravity well, have a deep and profound effect on the earth. it is true that this coming 'supermoon' is really no more than a localised maxima in a constantly oscillating pattern, but it is still a mzxima. couple it with increased sunspot activity (proven to correlate with tectonic effects) and you have a change in the odds.
betting on long odds is a funny game, but how many of us wear seatbelts?
Exactitude
Posted by pikelet
March 18, 2011 At 06:43 PM PDT
It's all very well being specific, I'm all for it, but what do you mean by 'bigger' - diameter? area? How much bigger, in angles, would the moon be? How much brighter?
Plus you need to take into account how the human perceptual syatem works.
Tectonic Activity Related To Sunspots
Posted by Kevin
March 18, 2011 At 07:57 PM PDT
"proven to correlate with tectonic effects"
Sources please; preferably not something citing a "2012 end of the world scenario"; Thanks.
Kevin
Clarity
Posted by RobLAL
March 19, 2011 At 03:43 AM PDT
I was confused because I thought I remember learning from Jack Horkheimer that the full moon in either October or November was the closest to the Earth. Although, it's been a long time since I heard that. Can anybody clarify?
It's not quite as simple as that
Posted by Alan Clark
March 19, 2011 At 04:15 AM PDT
There are several factors that determine the brightness of the full moon. One is the distance of the sun - we are closest in January, so the very brightest full moons occur at that time of year.
Another factor is the phase angle of the moon. The full moon can be 5 degrees from the anti-solar point when full, which reduces the brightness significantly, and that is the case for this full moon.
So this will not be particularly bright, and it was brighter on 2001 Jan 9, just before and after it was eclipsed, so the figure of 18 years is wrong.
For a discussion of the brightness of the moon see "More Mathematical Astronomy Morsel" by Jean Meeus.
The big full moon
Posted by Tom Sales
March 19, 2011 At 06:25 AM PDT
I still receive breathless emails every August from friends who ask, "Is it true that Mars is going to appear as big as the moon on August 26th?"
And every year I tell them:
1. This was an event that happened in 2003.
2. At that time, Mars only looked as big as a full moon IF you viewed the planet through a 100 POWER TELESCOPE!
It doesn't make any difference; they send me the same message the following year. It's sort of become an August tradition for me.
Moon
Posted by Robert Taylor
March 19, 2011 At 08:39 AM PDT
@Tom Sales
I still get those fake emails about Mars being as big as the Moon too. Yes if you look at it through a telescope it might seem bigger, but never as big as the moon.
Bright Moon
Posted by Elaine
March 19, 2011 At 03:34 PM PDT
My husband and I were outside last night. We live in a very rural area and have for a long time. The moon was so bright last night we could see the livestock in the farm next to us after midnight like it was the middle of the day. For us this is odd. So odd, my husband noticed it. I am the one who loves astronomy, not him. So it's quite brighter. Interested in knowing the difference in brightness with this "Supermoon" as oppossed to other Full Moons, and how much stronger will high and low tides be?
Oh a picture has loaded!
Posted by pikelet
March 19, 2011 At 05:00 PM PDT
Sorry, now my computer has deigned to load the page properly I see you had included some of what I asked.
Moon looked noticeably brighter here in England last night and tonight.
Bright in England
Posted by pikelet
March 19, 2011 At 05:06 PM PDT
Moon noticeably brighter last night and tonight.
Page has now loaded properly, and the two moon comparison goes some way to answering what I put!
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comments (17)